The Death of Germanicus: Disease or Murder?

Julius Caesar Germanicus died on Oct. 10th 19 C.E., in Epidaphne near Antioch of Syria, under mysterious circumstances, after days of unexplained suffering [1, 2, 3], at the age of 33 (uncertain 34), under the reign of Tiberius. He himself invoked poisoning while some historians lean towards a disease. The case, whose circumstances are controversial both from a political and a medical point of view, remains, even today, difficult to explain and represents a real historical enigma. The author traces the historical circumstances that preceded the premature death of a man, regarded as possible candidate for the throne of Rome Emperor, analyzed the historical sources and carefully considered any disease that might have affected Germanicus, causing his death. Poisons, in use at the time, are also taken in account. All the etiological conditions compatible with the clinical course preceding to Germanicus' death were compared and processed using multivariate analysis test, in order to obtain a reliable estimate of a correlation measure associated with the premature death of the famous Roman aristocrat. According to the test, and to Josephus Flavius’ historical record, the author concludes that poisoning was the cause of Germanicus death.